Open Access Research Article
Taliban Takeover Of Afghanistan: What It Means For India? (By- Debangana Ray)
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Article Details
Taliban
Takeover Of Afghanistan: What It Means For India?
Authored
By- Debangana Ray
Abstract
With the re-emergence of the Taliban,
the geopolitical situation of India has changed drastically. In Indian context,
there are some risks involved due to such change. The Taliban has received
massive support and legitimization from China and its good friend, Pakistan.
This has led to India having serious security concerns and problems as it
already has a strained relationship with both Pakistan and China. This study
aims to present risks posed to India due to the emergence of Taliban and
analyses its history with the previous government of the Taliban and later the
US Led government. India has always been supportive towards anti-Taliban
alliances and vice versa. Will anything change in the attitude of India with
the emergence of Taliban 2.0? What risks India has to face?. These are some of
the questions that this study attempts to answer.
Keywords: Taliban, India,
Afghanistan,Terrorism, Politics, US
1. Introduction:
On 15th August, subsequent
to the withdrawal of the United States from Afghanistan, the Taliban which a
radical fundamentalist terrorist organization, quickly took over the
administration of Afghanistan. This event marked the end of a twenty year long
war. The US-led war had begun on the 7th of October, 2001, less than
a month after the September 11 attacks. The war named Operation Enduring
Freedom, targeted Osama Bin Laden and Al Qaeda militants. The US also replaced
the Taliban Government with a US- friendly democratic government. Several
leaders of Afghanistan had been invited to Germany in the December of 2001 in
order to sign the Bonn Agreement sponsored by the US. This was done in order to
end conflict in the country and restore peace, stability, respect for human
rights. An interim government was formed with Hamid Karzai as the president and
30 other leaders. A supreme court and a special Independent commission was also
formed.
The return of the Taliban in
Afghanistan has created a strategic and security dilemma for India. India had
supported the civilian government and had provided developmental assistance for
over the past two decades. Since, 2001, India has invested nearly 3 billion US
dollars or Rupees 224 crore in development projects in Afghanistan.[1] These
development projects focused on improving infrastructure, facilitating capacity
building, enhancing trade, providing humanitarian assistance and so on.
Previously, when the Taliban had come to power, they had provided shelter to
Pakistani Terrorists. Therefore, this time too India is apprehensive that with
the emergence of the Taliban Government, the terrorist activities and tensions
at the Indo-Pak Border will increase. However, the future remains uncertain.
The
victory of the Taliban in Afghanistan has increased the confidence of Al-Qaeda
groups who have vested interests in Kashmir. There can an increase in terrorist
activities which can be detrimental to Indian interests. Also, in India, the
emergence of Taliban has led to increased Islamophobia exhibited by Hindu
Extremist groups.[2]
India
has previously invested in Military training and support to the Afghan army
which included supply of Mi-24 helicopters and Cheetah light utility
helicopters.[3] These are now in the hands of the
Taliban. The Taliban have already taken control of few Indian Investments in
Afghanistan such as the Zarang-Delaram Highway. India fears that its strategic
and security interests will be hurt as a result of the Taliban group.[4]
2. Taliban In
1996- 2001
The Taliban who emerged in the 1990s
is an Ultraconservative religious and political group. The group consisted of
students from Islamic religious schools which had been built for afghan
refugees in northern Pakistan. When the Taliban first came into power during
the 3rd Afghan Civil war, They established the Islamic Emirate of
Afghanistan. This happened after the collapse of a communist regime in
Afghanistan and withdrawal of Troops from the Soviet Union. In 1994, the
Taliban had acquired Kandahar by defeating the local leaders there. Soon, in
1996, with the help and support from the foreign conservative Islamist groups
and the Southern Pashtun ethnic group, Taliban was able to seize control over
the country by taking over the capital of the country, Kabul. However, the
group faced resistance from other Non-Pashtun ethnic groups mainly the Uzbeks
in the west, the Tajik in the north and the Hazara in central Afghanistan. The
Taliban had acquired control of the entirety of Afghanistan except for a small
region in Northern Afghanistan.
The reputation of the Taliban in the
world was largely negative. This is due to the treatment women and non-islamic
groups were subjected to. Women had to follow archiac social rules. They were
excluded and banned from having a public life, beaten publicly for failing to
follow Islamic rules imposed on them by the Taliban. The Taliban destroyed
non-Islamic artistic structures and also imposed harsh and extreme forms of
Punishment for the people in Afghanistan. It however, had the support of few
countries such as Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. The Taliban was also said to be
giving shelter to Terrorists such as Osama Bin Laden who was responsible for
numerous terrorist attacks, most popularly the September 11 attacks in the
World Trade Centre.
This enraged the US and they subsequently
asked the Taliban to extradite Osama and other Al-Qaeda terrorists to US. The
Taliban refused which led to the beginning of the US-led war in Afghanistan.
3. After The
Us Invasion (2001-2021):
On 7th October, 2001, the
US and UK launched an airstrike named “Operation Enduring Freedom” . By
mid-November, the Taliban had been driven out from Kabul. On December, the
Taliban Rule over Afghanistan officially ended as Kandahar fell in the hands of
the US. This US led war in Afghanistan led to the Taliban losing control of
Afghanistan and a new interim US-friendly government was formed led by Hamid
Karzai who became the President. Many countries including India supported the
removal of Taliban and promised to provide help for the development of
Afghanistan. The government was formed with the goal of restoring peace,
stability and respect for human rights. The Afghani leaders also signed the
Bonn Agreement and planned regarding the country needs to be governed by
creation of a constitution.[5]
4. India’s
Investments In Afghanistan:
India invested more than 3 Billion US
Dollars for Development projects in Afghanistan for over two decades. Some of
the main investments include a direct air freight corridor which was established
between India and Afghanistan in order to provide increased access to Indian
markets and enhance trade. Afghan businessmen can use and foster trade
networks. They can invest in India as well. Afghan farmers can access Indian
markets in a quick and direct manner in order to sell their produce. The Chabahar port, located in the Sistan
-Baluchistan province in Iran is an important development project by India and
Iran, in order to facilitate sea-land connectivity with the Central-Asia and
Afghanistan and ensure the smooth passage of Goods between Afghanistan and the
Port. India also sent its first ever wheat Shipment to Afghanistan and
committed to send over 1.1 million tonnes of wheat to Afghanistan through
Chabahar port.
This would help in enhancing the
connectivity and trade between Afghanistan and India. It had further helped in
building a 218 km road connecting Zaranj to Delaram which was completed in
2010. This road was built with the intention to ensure easy movement of goods
and services to the Iranian border. The 86 acre parliament building was also
built with the help of India and was inaugurated in 25th December,
2015 by the prime minster of India along with the president of Afghanistan.
India had assisted Afghanistan in
constructing a multipurpose dam named “afghan India Friendship Dam which has
been generating electricity and has become a source of irrigation. The Dam has
a capacity of 42 MW and provides enough water for irrigating approximately
75000 hectares of land. Further, a 100- year old palace located in the foreign
office premises in Kabul has been restored with the help of Indian assistance
in 2016. India has also aided Afghanistan on the health and education front.
The Indira Gandhi Institute of Child Health is a 400-bed hospital and forms the
main hospital for children in Afghanistan. It was established in the 1970s with
the help of Indian assistance. Approximately 3 Lakh children get treated in the
hospital annually. A diagnostic centre has also been set up in the hospital with
the help of the Indian government who provided financial assistance and
supplied equipment to the centre. India has played an important role in
providing equipment to the Afghan Army such as Mi-24 attack helicopters. India
has also provided training to the Afghan army and police in order to
effectively maintain the rule of law and secure peace in Afghanistan.[6]
Other Projects include Scholarship
programmes for Afghan Students. The Afghanistan National Agricultural Sciences
and Technology University was set up with the help of the Indian Government.
The Indian Agricultural Research University provided training and equipment for
the establishment of the university.
5. Re-Emergence
Of Taliban (2021-):
President Donald Trump signed a peace
agreement with the Taliban on February 2020. This agreement stated that the US
would withdraw all troops from Afghanistan provided the Taliban kept its
promises which was to not allow Al-Qaeda or militants of foreign terrorist
organizations to operate on Afghan land.
As the withdrawal of US forces began, the Taliban quickly took over
the entirety of Afghanistan including Kabul on the 15th of August,
2021. However, chaos ensued. The people of Afghanistan started fleeing for
their lives in order to escape the return of Taliban rule. They feared that the
Tyrannical rule of Taliban will return. Even if the Taliban claims a change in
character, their actions say otherwise. Women apprehend that they will lose
their freedom and livelihood once again which can be said that it has been
proved to be true as more reports emerge that women are being asked to stay at
home and are being restricted from pursuing a higher education. The Taliban has
been seen to severely curtail the Freedom of Press and Media. Also, Barbaric
punishments for not following Islamic rules are set to return. Embassy
officials and civilians from other countries are also being evacuated from
Afghanistan.
6. How Will
Taliban Rule Affect India?
With
the re-emergence of the Taliban rule in Afghanistan, the geopolitics of South
Asia is set to change drastically. India had previously supported the Soviet
led democratic system of governance of Afghanistan. Even after the Civil war,
when the Taliban rule emerged, India continued to support the Najibullah
Government in Afghanistan. The Taliban were only supported by the UAE, Saudi
Arabia and Pakistan. The Taliban destroyed Buddhist monuments in Bamiyans which
had caused a lot of Outrage in India. They also implemented rules that stated
that Afghan Hindus have to wear identification labels on them. The Taliban were
also suspected of supporting the 1999 Hijack of the Indian Airlines Flight 814
which was made to land in Kandahar in Afghanistan. Therefore, India was
supportive of the Northern Alliance who were anti-Taliban. After the US
invasion in 2001, India provided support to the coalition forces and fostered
diplomatic relations with the new interim democratic government. It also
provided financial support in the reconstruction process.
In February of 2020, a peace
agreement was signed between the US and the Taliban. The agreement was signed
by US envoy, Zalmay Khalizad on behalf of the United States and Mullah Abdul
Ghani Baradar on behalf of the Taliban. When the Taliban reoccupied the
country, India was flocked by Afghan refugees who escaped Afghanistan and from
the Taliban Rule.
According to United Nations, there are already
16,000 refugees in India along with 18000 unregistered refugees as well. In
order to provide entry to the incoming Afghan refugees, the Indian Government initiated
Fast-Track visa applications under Operation Devi Shakti. India also closed all
its embassies and consulates and have evacuated its officials.
Some
risks that India is fearful of with the Taliban takeover include terrorism.
Previously India has faced numerous attacks on its assets in Afghanistan and
even at the Indian Embassy in Kabul. These attacks have been carried out by the
Haqqani Group of Taliban which remain the most armed and the best trained among
all the other groups. Such attacks have also been supported by the ISI in
Pakistan. The Taliban and ISI share close ties with each other. Even though the
agreement signed clearly guaranteed that the Afghan land would not be misused
there still remains fear considering the fact that the Taliban and the ISI
share close and friendly relations with each other. Also, with the withdrawal
of forces there has been created a lack of security, which has given rise to a
new state named the Islamic State of Khorasan or the IS-K in South and Central
Asia . The group has managed to attract radical individuals from India as well
as from the Taliban and other Pakistani terrorist groups. Therefore, it forms a
significant threat to the future of India in Afghanistan. There was also an
attack which happened in a Gurudwara in Kabul in the march of 2020 behind which
the IS-K was responsible. Also, among the group their were four individuals who
were from Kerela making this attack all the more hurtful to India.
Secondly,
the relationship between Pakistan and the Taliban. The Pakistani influence on
Afghanistan is increasing with the emergence of the Taliban. The ISI always had
cordial relations with the Taliban. Even if Taliban promises to prevent
terrorism in its land, it cannot deny the relationship it shares with the ISI.
India fears that this influence of Pakistan on the Taliban can potential hurt
India’s interests in Afghanistan.[7]
Thirdly,
the Chinese support directed towards the Taliban is worrying for India. The
presence of the US government in India has affected China’s aggressive border
strategy along the Line of Actual Control and Indian borders either in support
of Pakistan or on its own. Pakistan has ridiculed India’s investments in
Afghanistan and have raised its issues regarding Jammu and Kashmir. Pakistan is
keen on creating problems for India by bringing Taliban’s attention to the
Union Territory.
It is going to be a serious security concern
for India if the Taliban decides to join hands with China and Pakistan. Though
the Taliban decided to stay out of the affairs of Pakistan and India at
present, the future remains uncertain.[8]
7. Way Forward:
It has
been advisable for India to accept the new reality and formulate diplomatic
relations with Afghanistan. It should recognize its own interests and be
pro-active in Afghanistan. There has been a change of policy in India as India
held talks with the Taliban. The talks revolved around security concerns and
early return of Indian nationals who were stuck in Afghanistan. India also
raised a concerns regarding misuse of Afghan lands for terrorist activities and
security of Minorities. The Taliban responded in a positive manner assuring
India that it would look into the matter.[9]
However, Though the Taliban promised non-interference in matters in Kashmir,
later it said that it had the right to comment about the Muslims in India.
8. Conclusion:
The
emergence of Taliban has affected the geopolitics of South Asia. India has
valid reasons to be worried due to the risky geopolitical situation. Though the
Taliban has promised friendship to India, it cannot be said that they would
keep this promise due to pressure from Pakistan, ISI and China. However, India
should continue its diplomatic relations with the new government and be
proactive in Afghanistan.
Article Information
Taliban Takeover Of Afghanistan: What It Means For India? (By- Debangana Ray)
Authors: Debangana Ray
- Journal IJLRA
- ISSN 2582-6433
- Published 2022/10/14
- Volume 2
- Issue 7
About Journal
International Journal for Legal Research and Analysis
- Abbreviation IJLRA
- ISSN 2582-6433
- Access Open Access
- License CC 4.0
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