Influence Of Caste And Religion In Elections In India (BY- Viraj Pratap Khatter)
Religious riots have complex
underpinnings - frequently social, economic and political factors are involved.
This paper demonstrates how these riots may influence voter behaviour and the
incentives of political parties. Using data on Hindu-Muslims riots in India
over 21 years, combined with electoral and demographic data, we demonstrate a
causal link between[1]
electoral politics and communal riots. We use an innovative instrument that
draws upon the random variation in the day of the week that important Hindu
festivals fall on each year to isolate the causal effect of riots on electoral
results. We find that riots occurring in the year preceding an election
increase the vote share of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya[2]
Janata Party in the election. Our results are robust to various robustness
checks on the data and econometric analysis. This result does not imply that
riots are not caused by electoral reasons. It may be the case that most of the
riots are in fact the result of political calculations. Our attempt here is to
disassociate those political reasons for riots and to examine the effect on
electoral results of exogenously caused riots. The fact that our results show
that a party systematically benefits from the riots, may establish that there
is a clear incentive for this party to cause riots for electoral benefit.
Therefore, our findings have important implications for the relationship[3]
between ethnic violence and electoral politics not just in India, but also in
other diverse democratic societies.